The Heritage Foundation’s blog points to a worrisome report in London’s Guardian newspaper that indicates that Iran’s nuclear weapons technology capabilities are far more advanced than previously thought: (”More Evidence of Iran Nuclear Duplicity,” Nov. 6, 2009):
The Guardian reports today that the International Atomic Energy Agency has asked Iran to explain evidence that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, but Tehran continues to stonewall requests for relevant information and drag its feet at the sputtering talks over its illicit nuclear weapons program. According to a dossier prepared by the IAEA, Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of a “two-point implosion” device that could enable Iran to eventually install small nuclear warheads on its ballistic missiles. One European official said that “It is breathtaking that Iran could be working on this sort of material.” The article reported on speculation that the Pakistani nuclear proliferator A.Q. Khan or a Russian weapons expert may have helped the Iranians to master the synchronized high explosive detonations necessary to build the warhead.
Here is the link to the original post in The Guardian: (“Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report/Exclusive: Watchdog fears Tehran has key component to put bombs in missiles,” Nov. 5, 2009)
The Heritage Foundation continues:
This revelation is one more reason, if any more were needed, to doubt the validity of the controversial 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that assessed that Iran had stopped its nuclear weaponization efforts in 2003. If Tehran already had perfected such a sophisticated technology, then it could afford to suspend further experiments while it amassed the necessary quantities of high-enriched uranium, long regarded as the “long pole in the tent” and the most challenging aspect of building a nuclear weapon.The news about warhead experiments provides further evidence that the 2007 NIE needs to reviewed and updated. Representative Pete Hoekstra has called for an independent “red team” to examine recent revelations about Iran’s nuclear program and reevaluate the NIE assessment. Such a review is long overdue.
Meanwhile the nuclear talks with Iran, which were hailed not long ago as a potential breakthrough, are in danger of collapsing. The Washington Post today reported that Iran is balking at further talks and now insists that it must receive a full supply of nuclear reactor fuel for its Tehran research reactor before it gives up any of its low-enriched uranium stocks. This is further evidence that Tehran is backtracking on its on-again-off-again “agreement in principle” to send about 70 percent of its LEU supplies out of the country. Buried in last paragraph of the article is the fact that Iran has refused to put its uranium enrichment activities – the principal focus of the nuclear talks – on the agenda!
At The New Ledger, Bruce Henderson explains on what it means if Iran really has the advanced technology:
If this is the case, it is clear evidence that Khan gave them the design for a physics package – one that is proven to work. If they can get the neutron source and the initiators, they pretty much not only have a bomb, but a weaponized one at that.Weaponized as in it’s small enough you can put it on a missile and get it somewhere – which is not possibly with any of the cartoon designs the Norks have been playing with.
This design is markedly different than the multi-point “fat man” type device that the big 5 all started with, and is closer to the kinds of modern warheads that are in use in the US and UK arsenal.
If the reporting is correct, then Iran may be emerging as a nuclear threat much faster than previously feared, and negotiations being pursued to halt its nuclear weapons program may be fruitless.
Meanwhile, the retiring director of the IAEA has called the agency a “total mess” and a “sleepy watchdog” – not exactly a ringing endorsement of the disarmament-over-deterrence approach to dealing with nuclear proliferation (though outgoing IAEA director general Mohamed Elbaradei still believes in the former over the latter). (”Paul C. Warnke Lecture on International Security: A World Free of Nuclear Weapons: Illusion or Possibility – By Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General, International Atomic Energy Agency, Council on Foreign Relations, Nov. 4, 2009, video and transcript)
